McKinsey: Now boarding: Faces, places, and trends shaping tourism in 2024
Global travel is back and buzzing. More regional trips, newly emerging travelers, and a fresh set of destinations are powering steady spending.
After falling by 75 percent in 2020, travel is on its way to a full recovery by the end of 2024. Domestic travel is expected to grow 3 percent annually and reach 19 billion lodging nights per year by 2030. 1 Over the same time frame, international travel should likewise ramp up to its historical average of nine billion nights. Spending on travel is expected to follow a similar trajectory, with an estimated $8.6 trillion in traveler outlays in 2024, representing
After falling by 75 percent in 2020, travel is on its way to a full recovery by the end of 2024. Domestic travel is expected to grow 3 percent annually and reach 19 billion lodging nights per year by 2030. 1 Over the same time frame, international travel should likewise ramp up to its historical average of nine billion nights. Spending on travel is expected to follow a similar trajectory, with an estimated $8.6 trillion in traveler outlays in 2024, representing roughly 9 percent of this year’s global GDP.
There’s no doubt people still love to travel and will continue to seek new experiences in new places. But where will travelers come from, and where will they go? We developed a snapshot of current traveler flows, along with estimates for growth through 2030. For the purposes of this report, we have divided the world into four regions—the Americas, Asia, Europe, and the Middle East and Africa.
Our analysis identifies three major themes for industry stakeholders to consider:
- The bulk of travel spending is close to home. Stakeholders should ensure they capture the full potential of domestic travel before shifting their focus to international travelers. And they should start with international travelers who visit nearby countries—as intraregional trips represent the largest travel segment after domestic trips.
- Source markets are shifting. Although established source markets continue to anchor global travel, Eastern Europe, India, and Southeast Asia are all becoming fast-growing sources of outbound tourism.
- The destinations of the future may not be the ones you imagine. Alongside enduring favorites, places that weren’t on many tourists’ maps are finding clever ways to lure international travelers and establish themselves as desirable destinations.
The bulk of travel spending is close to home
International travel might feel more glamorous, but tourism players should not forget that domestic travel still represents the bulk of the market, accounting for 75 percent of global travel spending (Exhibit 1). Domestic travel recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic faster than international travel, as is typical coming out of downturns. And although there has been a recent boom in “revenge travel,” with travelers prioritizing international trips that were delayed by the pandemic, a return to prepandemic norms, in which domestic travel represents 70 percent of spending, is expected by 2030.
The United States is the world’s largest domestic travel market at $1 trillion in annual spending. Sixty-eight percent of all trips that start in the United States remain within its borders. Domestic demand has softened slightly, as American travelers return abroad. 2 But tourism players with the right offerings are still thriving: five national parks broke attendance records in 2023 (including Joshua Tree National Park, which capitalized on growing interest from stargazers indulging in “dark sky” tourism 3).
China’s $744 billion domestic travel market is currently the world’s second largest. Chinese travelers spent the pandemic learning to appreciate the diversity of experiences on offer within their own country. Even as borders open back up, Chinese travelers are staying close to home. And domestic destinations are benefiting: for example, Changchun (home to the Changchun Ice and Snow Festival) realized 160 percent year-on-year growth in visitors in 2023. 4 In 2024, domestic travel during Lunar New Year exceeded prepandemic levels by 19 percent.
China’s domestic travel market is expected to grow 12 percent annually and overtake the United States’ to become the world’s largest by 2030. Hotel construction reflects this expectation: 30 percent of the global hotel construction pipeline is currently concentrated in China. The pipeline is heavily skewed toward luxury properties, with more than twice as many luxury hotels under construction in China as in the United States.
India, currently the world’s sixth-largest domestic travel market by spending, is another thriving area for domestic travel. With the subcontinent’s growing middle class powering travel spending growth of roughly 9 percent per year, India’s domestic market could overtake Japan’s and Mexico’s to become the world’s fourth largest by 2030. Domestic air passenger traffic in India is projected to double by 2030, 5 boosted in part by a state-subsidized initiative that aims to connect underserved domestic airports. 6
Recognizing this general trend, stakeholders have been funneling investment toward regional tourism destinations. An Emirati wealth fund, for instance, has announced its intent to invest roughly $35 billion into established hospitality properties and development opportunities in Egypt. 7
Europe has long played host to a high share of intraregional travel. Seventy percent of its travelers’ international trips stay within the region. Europe’s most popular destinations for intraregional travelers are perennial warm-weather favorites—Spain (18 percent), Italy (10 percent), and France (8 percent)—with limited change to these preferences expected between now and 2030.
