Hotel lender survey suggests cautious outlook for 2017
HENDERSONVILLE, Tennessee, and NEW YORK – A majority of hotel lenders expressed a cautious outlook for the hotel lending environment in 2017, according to the year-end release of the 2016 Hotel Lender Survey.
The fourth-annual survey, conducted by STR, Hotel News Now and RobertDouglas, includes responses from more than 40 senior balance sheet lenders, senior CMBS/conduit lenders and providers of subordinate debt financing. Together, the participating lenders represent the source of the majority of all hotel debt originating in the U.S. in 2016, with loan balances in excess of US$10 million.
"Over the four years we have surveyed lenders, there has been a clear sentiment shift in their views of the industry from confident to cautious," said Stephen Hennis, STR's VP of consulting and analytics. "Most lenders believe that asset values have peaked and are concerned about the economic outlook."
Key findings from the survey include:
- None of the surveyed lenders believe hotel values will increase significantly in the next 12 months.
- 54% of respondents predicted that hotel values will be flat in the next 12 months, and 41% of respondents anticipate values to decrease in the next 12 months.
- 59% of lender respondents expect the overall hotel lending volume of the next 12 months to remain consistent with the previous 12 months.
- More than two-thirds of lenders expect senior mortgage credit spreads to widen in 2017.
- Exactly half of the surveyed lenders indicated that location and quality of real estate is the single most important "gating" criteria for financing requests.
- For the third consecutive year, lender respondents cited the potential for a slowdown and/or faltering general macroeconomic recovery as the most feared threat to their hotel loan portfolio.
- Urban areas continue to be viewed as the least risky to provide financing for hotels.
- Economy, Independent and Luxury products are considered to carry the most financing risk.
- Senior lenders require, on average, a minimum debt yield of 10.0% on underwritten cash flow for an existing hotel.
- Among property classes, Economy receives the least amount of interest from lenders who provide construction financing.
- While less than one-third of all lenders surveyed will consider any kind of construction financing, among those that will finance construction, no lender indicated that they would accept less than 50% repayment recourse.
About the Hotel Lender Survey
The Hotel Lender Survey is part of the Hotel Investors Gauge, which is produced quarterly by STR. The Hotel Investors Gauge is a survey of lenders, developers and investors that measures the current state of financing market conditions and ascertains critical future expectations through the lens of the hotel investment community. The Hotel Lender Survey is the in-depth year-end survey that focuses on the outlook of major hotel lenders. To order a copy of the survey, please visit http://www.str.com/products/hotel-investors-gauge. To participate in future surveys, contact [email protected].
About RobertDouglas
RobertDouglas is a real estate investment banking firm with offices in New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco that specializes in the sale, financing and equity capitalization of hotel, resort and gaming properties throughout North America. Founded by two of the hotel industry's pre-eminent finance professionals, Rob Stiles and Doug Hercher, RobertDouglas offers exceptional domestic and international institutional investor and lender relationships. RobertDouglas combines the capital markets sophistication of top-tier investment banks with detailed hotel underwriting and asset management experience, providing the firm with unique capabilities in an underserved market. For more information, contact [email protected] or go to http://www.robert-douglas.com/.
About STR
STR provides premium data benchmarking, analytics and marketplace insights for the global hospitality industry. Founded in 1985, STR maintains a presence in 15 countries with a corporate North American headquarters in Hendersonville, Tennessee, an international headquarters in London, and an Asia Pacific headquarters in Singapore. STR was acquired in October 2019 by CoStar Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSGP), the leading provider of commercial real estate information, analytics and online marketplaces. For more information, please visit str.com and costargroup.com.
Jeff Higley (STR)
VP, Digital Media & Communications
+1 (615) 824-8664 ext. 3318
STR