Outlook for China tourism in 2022: Trends to watch in uncertain times

Although Chinese consumer confidence is growing, desire for travel has shown a faltering recovery due to sporadic COVID-19 outbreaks. A predictable pattern is emerging where desire for travel recovers roughly two months after a decline and even though international travel is restricted, the desire for travel remains. Furthermore, travelers’ preferences are shifting, with implications for travel companies.

This article updates findings of McKinsey’s Survey of Chinese Tourist Attitudes and compares the results across the five surveys taken in April 2020, May 2020, August 2020, January 2021, and October 2021. It also examines the implications of shifting attitudes toward travel and offers actions that travel companies may consider when planning for the year ahead.

Confidence in China’s recovery is growing—consumer confidence is now at the highest level since the start of the pandemic. In February 2020, consumer confidence was at 43 percent. In October 2021, 67 percent of respondents indicated that they believe the Chinese economy will recover within two to three months.

As confidence grows, consumer spending is also showing signs of recovery. The latest Survey of Chinese Tourist Attitudes indicates that the majority of respondents, 77 percent of households, expect their income to stay constant in the near future and essential spending and discretionary spending have both increased since March 2021 and are stabilizing.

When it comes to travel sentiment, desire for travel has spiked and dipped as COVID-19 outbreaks continue. Previous McKinsey research indicated that the resurgence of domestic travel would support China’s travel industry recovery. ² But, with recent sporadic outbreaks, confidence in domestic travel has been affected. For instance, in October 2021, only 2 percent of people planned to travel in the next two months. But comparing the results of the five tourist attitude surveys, it appears that COVID-19 outbreaks suppress travel desire for up to two months. The good news is that confidence in domestic travel safety quickly rebounds, showing a predictable pattern of recovery.

Travel patterns echo the fluctuations in travel aspiration. The number of airline passengers increased by 61 percent between August and September 2021, then increased by 8 percent in October, followed by a decrease of 45 percent between October and November. Similarly, the number of rail passengers showed a 47 percent increase, a 9 percent increase, and a 42 percent decrease in the same months. ⁴ But despite the fluctuations, the sentiment survey shows that the desire for travel remains. Currently, 42 percent of respondents plan to travel domestically for their next leisure trip, 26 percent of these involve flights of more than three hours of travel time.

Click here to read the full article

About McKinsey & Company

McKinsey & Company is a global management consulting firm. We are the trusted advisor to the world's leading businesses, governments, and institutions. We work with leading organizations across the private, public and social sectors. Our scale, scope, and knowledge allow us to address problems that no one else can. We have deep functional and industry expertise as well as breadth of geographical reach. We are passionate about taking on immense challenges that matter to our clients and, often, to the world. We work with our clients as we do with our colleagues. We build their capabilities and leadership skills at every level and every opportunity. We do this to help build internal support, get to real issues, and reach practical recommendations. We bring out the capabilities of clients to fully participate in the process and lead the ongoing work.