CBRE is reducing its forecast for U.S. hotel performance this year, as lodging demand softens due to weaker-than-expected leisure travel and slowing corporate profit growth.

CBRE now projects a 1.2% increase in revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth for 2024, down from the 2.0% estimated in May 2024. Nevertheless, CBRE anticipates 2% year-over-year growth in RevPAR in the second half of 2024, up from 0.5% year-over-year growth in the first half, driven by international tourism and election-related events.

CBRE forecasts GDP growth of 2.3% and average inflation of 3.2% in 2024. The performance of the lodging industry is closely tied to the strength of the economy, as there is typically a strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth.

“We expect low single-digit RevPAR growth over the near-term as election-related events, growth in inbound international travel, and an anticipated lower interest rate environment should support hotel demand,” said Rachael Rothman, CBRE’s Head of Hotel Research & Data Analytics. “Challenges including weakening consumer spending and increased competition from short-term rentals, cruise lines and other lodging alternatives pose downside risks.”

CBRE remains optimistic that RevPAR will achieve a nominal record of $100.54 this year, representing 114.5% of pre-pandemic levels in 2019. This outlook is based on projected average daily rate (ADR) growth of 1.1% and a 10-basis point increase in occupancy.

“Following stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter, CBRE anticipates a slowdown in economic growth in the second half of 2024 and into 2025,” said Michael Nhu, Senior Economist and CBRE’s Head of Global Hotels Forecasting. “If interest rate cuts do not stimulate growth and the economy continues to weaken, we may see a decline in RevPAR.”

Despite these potential challenges, demand for travel remains strong with record year-to-date Transportation Security Administration (TSA) throughput in the U.S. of nearly 549 million passengers, up 5.4% year-over-year. CBRE expects increasing global wealth and muted supply growth to support lodging fundamentals over the longer term. CBRE forecasts compound annual growth in supply of under 1% over the next three years, as elevated financing and construction costs temper construction activity.

The August 2024 edition of Hotel Horizons for the U.S. lodging industry, 65 major markets, the six hotel chain scales and six location types can be purchased by visiting: https://pip.cbrehotels.com/hotelhorizons. CBRE’s baseline forecasts do not contemplate an international war or a pervasive recession. CBRE also produces forecasts based on upside and downside scenarios.