The business travel industry is on the cusp of a major transformation, driven by a convergence of technological advancements, evolving sustainability requirements, and shifting demographic trends. To commemorate the recently released 10th edition of their Global Business Travel Forecast report, CWT and the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) have produced a special supplement titled 2040: Baseline, Boom, or Bust offering a comprehensive analysis of how these factors will shape corporate travel strategies by 2040.

The supplement examines three distinct scenarios that could define the future of business travel:

    1. Base Case: In this scenario, business travel is projected to stabilize with a moderate growth rate, reaching just over 1 billion passengers by 2040. This growth is driven by a balanced approach to sustainability and technology, with companies adopting eco-friendly practices and advanced travel management tools. Companies will prioritize essential travel, leveraging virtual meeting technologies to enhance efficiency. The percentage of the workforce involved in business travel is expected to rise to nearly 18%, reflecting a steady but measured increase.
    2. Boom: Under the boom scenario, business travel experiences robust growth, with the number of global business travelers exceeding 1.2 billion passengers by 2040. This surge is fueled by increased travel to emerging markets, particularly in Africa and Asia, which are projected to account for a substantial portion of the growth. The widespread adoption of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and advancements in green technology contribute to this scenario. Nearly 22% of the global workforce is involved in business travel, driven by heightened global collaboration and the integration of AI, VR, and automation in travel processes.
    3. Bust: In the bust scenario, business travel growth slows significantly, with the number of business travelers reaching around 800 million by 2040. This slowdown is attributed to stringent sustainability regulations, slow adoption of eco-friendly practices, and the rise of remote and flexible work arrangements. Companies will increasingly rely on virtual interactions and hybrid events, focusing on essential trips only. Geopolitical instability and economic uncertainty further contribute to the reduction in travel, with stricter visa regulations and carbon taxes playing a role in the diminished travel demand.

“The future of business travel is at a critical juncture, driven by technological advancements, sustainability mandates, and evolving global dynamics,” said Nick Vournakis, EVP & Chief Customer Officer at CWT. “Our report emphasizes the need for businesses to be adaptable and proactive in their travel strategies. Whether navigating a boom in global travel or adapting to a slowdown, businesses that proactively integrate technology, prioritize sustainability, and stay agile will be best positioned to thrive in this shifting landscape.”

The supplement also provides actionable recommendations for businesses, including investing in data analytics, embracing technological innovation, building strategic partnerships, and focusing on employee well-being to effectively navigate the future of business travel.

For a deeper dive into the projected shifts in business travel, including the potential scenarios of base case, boom or bust, and detailed insights on regional impacts and trends, access the full supplement here.